The Permanent Portfolio, Investing, Finance and Random Thoughts.
What Permanent Portfolio asset will win in 2009?
Dust off your crystal ball and vote in the poll on what Permanent Portfolio asset class will do best in 2009. Will stocks rebound? Will long term bonds have enough power to save the portfolio again? Is inflation finally coming to make gold soar? Or will it be a year of people holding onto their cash?
Vote in the poll to the right. The poll is open until the end of the month. Feel free to talk about your prediction in the comments and we’ll review them in December ’09. If you’re good enough, maybe we can get you a job at a Hedge Fund. 
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#2 written by Pres 3 years ago
Interesting analysis Max!
My crystal ball is malfunctioning, so I guess I should own all four.
I expect bear market rallyes to be followed by a lot more pain, but when?
War and hyperinflation may drive gold up, but when?
LT bonds would be good if deflation would last a long time, but so many people are preparing for deflation now… it might be a contrarian signal. -
It’s going to be a tough call this year. On the one hand we had the largest single year market decline since 1931 that shook out a lot of people and perhaps undervalued stocks. On the other hand we have the govt. which is already in debt up to their neck wanting to print even more money which would be good for gold. LT Bonds could still have some power in them, but I think the pressure on the dollar is going to keep increasing and drive down their prices.
So my vote is going to be stocks based on what they’ve done historically after a big crash. The dividend yield is also up sharply which will also help boost returns if things start to recover. But gold has some possibilities as well.
Disclaimer: I’m not a market timer and I own all four assets right now as part of my portfolio.
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#4 written by Wonk 3 years ago
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Here is the 1972-2008 calender year winner count:
U.S. stocks: 16
Gold: 12
LT treasuries: 6
Cash: 3
Based on history and last year’s returns, stocks are the clear favorite. And cash is very unlikely.