about 4 weeks ago - 1 comment
For our readers across the pond there is another blog that focuses on Permanent Portfolio investing. The blog by Marc de Mesel looks at investing in the Permanent Portfolio from a European perspective.
about 1 month ago - 4 comments
I’m often asked questions about substituting some asset X for one of the other assets in the Permanent Portfolio. I think this is a bad idea because you could introduce a potentially weaker investment for one of the time-tested assets the portfolio holds.
Now, as a recap we know that the Permanent Portfolio holds four core assets:
1) More >
about 1 month ago - 6 comments
Investing should be dead simple. Dead simple investing means sticking to the basics. So this post I’m going back to the basics to help new followers of the Permanent Portfolio get a solid understanding of how the strategy works.
about 2 months ago - 6 comments
I get asked from time to time about what asset class in the Permanent Portfolio is going to do best. Usually this is in the context of someone wanting to start investing in the Permanent Portfolio but they don’t want to buy the stocks or the bonds or the cash or the gold because they feel one or all of them are too expensive. Or they’ve read some articles and research about how one asset or another is just poised to fall at any moment and another is going to go up wildly in price. Well, my advice is always the same: Just do the four way split and don’t try to guess the markets.
about 2 months ago - 28 comments
We discuss the performance of the Permanent Portfolio allocation for 2009.
about 4 months ago - 4 comments
You can learn things from the most unlikely sources in life. When people ask me what it was that got me to start following the Permanent Portfolio I respond with one word: Porn.
about 5 months ago - 15 comments
The Permanent Portfolio allocation is 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold and 25% cash. In this series we talk about the 25% gold allocation and how it protects you from inflation and other currency problems.
about 6 months ago - 22 comments
Let’s look at how the Permanent Portfolio has done so far in 2009 according to Morningstar. A sample Permanent Portfolio comprised of the following ETFs has these total returns for the year. This assumes you bought in January and held on without touching the assets until today:
Vanguard Total Stock Market (Ticker: VTI): 21.27%
SPDR Gold ETF (Ticker: More >
about 9 months ago - 9 comments
I’ve gotten many questions about slicing up the equity allocation of the Permanent Portfolio to try to capture the “value premium” by biasing the portfolio towards small cap value stocks both domestically and internationally.
about 9 months ago - 10 comments
Scott Sutton, a friend of mine, was researching the Permanent Portfolio and wanted to use his own historical data instead of relying on data others have used. So he went and researched first hand the data from Ibbotson and other sources and compiled his own spreadsheet.
about 1 year ago
Here is the 1972-2008 calender year winner count:
U.S. stocks: 16
Gold: 12
LT treasuries: 6
Cash: 3
Based on history and last year’s returns, stocks are the clear favorite. And cash is very unlikely.
about 1 year ago
Interesting analysis Max!
My crystal ball is malfunctioning, so I guess I should own all four.
I expect bear market rallyes to be followed by a lot more pain, but when?
War and hyperinflation may drive gold up, but when?
LT bonds would be good if deflation would last a long time, but so many people are preparing for deflation now… it might be a contrarian signal.
about 1 year ago
It’s going to be a tough call this year. On the one hand we had the largest single year market decline since 1931 that shook out a lot of people and perhaps undervalued stocks. On the other hand we have the govt. which is already in debt up to their neck wanting to print even more money which would be good for gold. LT Bonds could still have some power in them, but I think the pressure on the dollar is going to keep increasing and drive down their prices.
So my vote is going to be stocks based on what they’ve done historically after a big crash. The dividend yield is also up sharply which will also help boost returns if things start to recover. But gold has some possibilities as well.
Disclaimer: I’m not a market timer and I own all four assets right now as part of my portfolio.
about 1 year ago
At first I thought gold, but I recently heard a compelling case for continued de-leveraging and a stronger dollar short term. Stocks might give a little dead cat bouce or LT bonds might have more room to run. I think I covered all my bases, no?