Investing, economics, finance and random thoughts.
What Permanent Portfolio asset will win in 2009?
Dust off your crystal ball and vote in the poll on what Permanent Portfolio asset class will do best in 2009. Will stocks rebound? Will long term bonds have enough power to save the portfolio again? Is inflation finally coming to make gold soar? Or will it be a year of people holding onto their cash?
Vote in the poll to the right. The poll is open until the end of the month. Feel free to talk about your prediction in the comments and we’ll review them in December ’09. If you’re good enough, maybe we can get you a job at a Hedge Fund. 
| Print article | This entry was posted by craigr on January 7, 2009 at 10:47 pm, and is filed under Investing. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed. |
European Permanent Portfolio Update
about 6 days ago - 1 comment
Marc DeMesel runs his blog over in Europe and has built a European version of the Permanent Portfolio using Eurozone stocks, German Bonds, Cash and Gold. He too presents a mid-year report from the European perspective showing a 8.7% YTD return and goes over how the portfolio performed historically. Keep in mind that the Euro
Permanent Portfolio Mid-Year 2010
about 4 weeks ago - 2 comments
I generally advise not looking at portfolio returns too often, but it’s about halfway through the year so we’ll take a peek because some people have wanted to know.
An Unknown Economic Climate?
about 1 month ago - 2 comments
Someone wanted to know: Are we sure there are no more than four economic investing climates that can affect the Permanent Portfolio?
Mark Hulbert on the Permanent Portfolio
about 2 months ago - Comments Off
Well known investment newsletter expert Mark Hulbert has written a nice article on the Permanent Portfolio concept: An Antidote to Volatility Would you be interested in an all-weather portfolio that, despite hardly ever changing its composition, performs creditably in almost all market environments? Why that does sound good doesn’t it? Click below to find out
Safe. Stable. Simple.
about 4 months ago - 2 comments
Safe. Stable. Simple. These are the words Harry Browne used to describe his investment philosophy in his October 10, 2004 radio show. He pretty much nails it.
European Permanent Portfolio Blogs
about 5 months ago - 1 comment
For our readers across the pond there is another blog that focuses on Permanent Portfolio investing. The blog by Marc de Mesel looks at investing in the Permanent Portfolio from a European perspective.
Why these assets?
about 5 months ago - 4 comments
I’m often asked questions about substituting some asset X for one of the other assets in the Permanent Portfolio. I think this is a bad idea because you could introduce a potentially weaker investment for one of the time-tested assets the portfolio holds. Now, as a recap we know that the Permanent Portfolio holds four core
Permanent Portfolio – Back to Basics
about 5 months ago - 10 comments
Investing should be dead simple. Dead simple investing means sticking to the basics. So this post I’m going back to the basics to help new followers of the Permanent Portfolio get a solid understanding of how the strategy works.
Which Asset Will Do Best?
about 6 months ago - 6 comments
I get asked from time to time about what asset class in the Permanent Portfolio is going to do best. Usually this is in the context of someone wanting to start investing in the Permanent Portfolio but they don’t want to buy the stocks or the bonds or the cash or the gold because they feel one or all of them are too expensive. Or they’ve read some articles and research about how one asset or another is just poised to fall at any moment and another is going to go up wildly in price. Well, my advice is always the same: Just do the four way split and don’t try to guess the markets.
Permanent Portfolio Results 2009 – A Thrilling Ride
about 6 months ago - 28 comments
We discuss the performance of the Permanent Portfolio allocation for 2009.
Comments are closed.
about 1 year ago
Here is the 1972-2008 calender year winner count:
U.S. stocks: 16
Gold: 12
LT treasuries: 6
Cash: 3
Based on history and last year’s returns, stocks are the clear favorite. And cash is very unlikely.
about 1 year ago
Interesting analysis Max!
My crystal ball is malfunctioning, so I guess I should own all four.
I expect bear market rallyes to be followed by a lot more pain, but when?
War and hyperinflation may drive gold up, but when?
LT bonds would be good if deflation would last a long time, but so many people are preparing for deflation now… it might be a contrarian signal.
about 1 year ago
It’s going to be a tough call this year. On the one hand we had the largest single year market decline since 1931 that shook out a lot of people and perhaps undervalued stocks. On the other hand we have the govt. which is already in debt up to their neck wanting to print even more money which would be good for gold. LT Bonds could still have some power in them, but I think the pressure on the dollar is going to keep increasing and drive down their prices.
So my vote is going to be stocks based on what they’ve done historically after a big crash. The dividend yield is also up sharply which will also help boost returns if things start to recover. But gold has some possibilities as well.
Disclaimer: I’m not a market timer and I own all four assets right now as part of my portfolio.
about 1 year ago
At first I thought gold, but I recently heard a compelling case for continued de-leveraging and a stronger dollar short term. Stocks might give a little dead cat bouce or LT bonds might have more room to run. I think I covered all my bases, no?