Comments on: What Permanent Portfolio asset will win in 2009? http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2009/01/07/what-permanent-portfolio-asset-will-do-best-in-200/ Investing, economics, finance and random thoughts. Sat, 24 Jul 2010 02:14:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc By: The Home Stretch | Crawling Road http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2009/01/07/what-permanent-portfolio-asset-will-do-best-in-200/comment-page-1/#comment-623 The Home Stretch | Crawling Road Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:37:26 +0000 http://crawlingroad.com/blog/?p=815#comment-623 [...] January of last year I asked what people thought would perform the best of the four Permanent Portfolio Assets (Stocks, Bonds, Cash or Gold). While I tossed my hat into the stocks camp (which have recovered [...] [...] January of last year I asked what people thought would perform the best of the four Permanent Portfolio Assets (Stocks, Bonds, Cash or Gold). While I tossed my hat into the stocks camp (which have recovered [...]

]]> By: Wonk http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2009/01/07/what-permanent-portfolio-asset-will-do-best-in-200/comment-page-1/#comment-82 Wonk Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:05:42 +0000 http://crawlingroad.com/blog/?p=815#comment-82 At first I thought gold, but I recently heard a compelling case for continued de-leveraging and a stronger dollar short term. Stocks might give a little dead cat bouce or LT bonds might have more room to run. I think I covered all my bases, no? At first I thought gold, but I recently heard a compelling case for continued de-leveraging and a stronger dollar short term. Stocks might give a little dead cat bouce or LT bonds might have more room to run. I think I covered all my bases, no?

]]> By: craigr http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2009/01/07/what-permanent-portfolio-asset-will-do-best-in-200/comment-page-1/#comment-63 craigr Thu, 08 Jan 2009 18:00:08 +0000 http://crawlingroad.com/blog/?p=815#comment-63 It's going to be a tough call this year. On the one hand we had the largest single year market decline since 1931 that shook out a lot of people and perhaps undervalued stocks. On the other hand we have the govt. which is already in debt up to their neck wanting to print even more money which would be good for gold. LT Bonds could still have some power in them, but I think the pressure on the dollar is going to keep increasing and drive down their prices. So my vote is going to be stocks based on what they've done historically after a big crash. The dividend yield is also up sharply which will also help boost returns if things start to recover. But gold has some possibilities as well. Disclaimer: I'm not a market timer and I own all four assets right now as part of my portfolio. It’s going to be a tough call this year. On the one hand we had the largest single year market decline since 1931 that shook out a lot of people and perhaps undervalued stocks. On the other hand we have the govt. which is already in debt up to their neck wanting to print even more money which would be good for gold. LT Bonds could still have some power in them, but I think the pressure on the dollar is going to keep increasing and drive down their prices.

So my vote is going to be stocks based on what they’ve done historically after a big crash. The dividend yield is also up sharply which will also help boost returns if things start to recover. But gold has some possibilities as well.

Disclaimer: I’m not a market timer and I own all four assets right now as part of my portfolio.

]]> By: Pres http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2009/01/07/what-permanent-portfolio-asset-will-do-best-in-200/comment-page-1/#comment-62 Pres Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:45:09 +0000 http://crawlingroad.com/blog/?p=815#comment-62 Interesting analysis Max! My crystal ball is malfunctioning, so I guess I should own all four. I expect bear market rallyes to be followed by a lot more pain, but when? War and hyperinflation may drive gold up, but when? LT bonds would be good if deflation would last a long time, but so many people are preparing for deflation now... it might be a contrarian signal. Interesting analysis Max!

My crystal ball is malfunctioning, so I guess I should own all four.

I expect bear market rallyes to be followed by a lot more pain, but when?
War and hyperinflation may drive gold up, but when?
LT bonds would be good if deflation would last a long time, but so many people are preparing for deflation now… it might be a contrarian signal.

]]> By: Max http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2009/01/07/what-permanent-portfolio-asset-will-do-best-in-200/comment-page-1/#comment-59 Max Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:53:55 +0000 http://crawlingroad.com/blog/?p=815#comment-59 Here is the 1972-2008 calender year winner count: U.S. stocks: 16 Gold: 12 LT treasuries: 6 Cash: 3 Based on history and last year's returns, stocks are the clear favorite. And cash is very unlikely. Here is the 1972-2008 calender year winner count:

U.S. stocks: 16
Gold: 12
LT treasuries: 6
Cash: 3

Based on history and last year’s returns, stocks are the clear favorite. And cash is very unlikely.

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