Archive for June, 2009
Be a Skeptical Investor
Jun 22nd
If you’re in the investing world long enough, you’ll eventually get tempted to put your money into some new investment or try to tweak your portfolio to outperform the market. It’s easy to get lulled into an idea that you can beat the markets if you just do enough research, just make enough trades, just own the right funds, just follow the right market prognosticator, etc. But what you’re really doing when you try to beat the markets is moving from the realm of investing to speculating. And when you speculate, you take the chance you may beat the markets, but you also take the chance that you may not.
So in this vein, I went back and found a short segment of what I feel is one of the core ideas behind the Permanent Portfolio from Harry Browne himself. I think this little two minute clip captures a fundamental truth in the investing world about why you need to be skeptical and why you should understand the differences between investing and speculating:
Harry Browne the Skeptical Investor
This clip was taken from Harry Browne’s radio show on October 31, 2004.
Keeping It Simple – A Lesson From Backtesting
Jun 14th
I’ve gotten many questions about slicing up the equity allocation of the Permanent Portfolio to try to capture the “value premium” by biasing the portfolio towards small cap value stocks both domestically and internationally.
Here are my thoughts:
Backtesting investing performance is dangerous. With backtesting, there is this temptation to tweak a portfolio to obtain the best possible historical returns. The one problem with this is: We aren’t going to re-live the past. We are going to live a brand new future that will be different. Even worse, you could introduce risks to the asset allocation that you may overlook as you stare mesmerized by the high annual returns you’ve discovered.
One of the changes you hear people talking about with the Permanent Portfolio (or most index investing strategies) is that some asset or another should be changed because this other asset did best in the past. After all, look at the results. If you just substituted Sub-Saharan Africa Micro Cap Value Stocks for the US Total Stock Market fund, the historical performance went up by X% a year and over Y number of years it creates a dramatic difference.
Too bad we didn’t know that information years ago when we could have actually made use of it. Now would you mind telling us what’s going to do best going forward? That’s something we can actually use.
Rule #8 Strikes Again…
Jun 11th
A sad article from the New York Times about a financial advisor who ripped off their clients:
…the S.E.C. complaint paints a picture of a man set on aiming at the vulnerable. The complaint lists a roster of victims, including an elderly couple with compromised mental capabilities; a 24-year-old law student who had inherited $1 million from her parents; and Mr. Weitzman’s own father-in-law, who may be out $3 million.
Patricia Flinn, a Brewster, N.Y., resident and a former client of Mr. Weitzman’s, met him when her husband was told, six months after they had married, that he had cancer. “He told Matt that he wanted to be sure that his wife would be taken care of.”
As her husband, William Adcock, lay dying, however, Mr. Weitzman helped himself to Mr. Adcock’s money, including one withdrawal on the day that Mr. Weitzman served as a witness when Mr. Adcock changed his will, Ms. Flinn said. After he died, Mr. Weitzman began taking Ms. Flinn’s money instead, she recalled. According to the government charges, he usually used forms with forged signatures to wire money from client accounts at Charles Schwab to an account that he controlled.
Yet another reminder to pay attention to the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety. Especially Rule #8:
Make Your Own Decisions
Rule #8: Don’t let anyone make your decisions.
Many people lost their fortunes because they gave someone (a financial advisor or attorney) the authority to make their decisions and handle their money. The advisor may have taken too many chances, been dishonest, or simply incompetent. But, most of all, no advisor can be expected to treat your money with the same respect you do.
You don’t need a money manager. Investing is complicated and difficult to understand only if you’re trying to beat the market. You can preserve what you have with only a minimum understanding of investing. You can set up a worry-proof portfolio for yourself in one day — and then you need only one day a year to monitor it. Allowing the smartest person in the world to make your decisions for you isn’t nearly as safe as setting up a safe portfolio for yourself.
Above all, never give anyone signature authority over money that’s precious to you. If you should put money into an account for someone else to manage, it must be money you can afford to lose.
If you or a family member absolutely needs to use a financial advisor to run an account (say the person is not capable of making good decisions, etc.), I’d stick to Vanguard and use their financial planners. They are backed by a large and well run company, have insurance and controls to prevent fraud, plus they won’t do anything grossly negligent with your money as they tend to be conservative (and you can direct how the money is to be invested).
Or if you don’t want to use a financial planner, but don’t want to run a portfolio yourself, you could put the money into the Permanent Portfolio Fund and get one stop shopping that way.
In any event, my personal opinion is to never give anyone signature authority over your money in a way that they can directly access or withdraw it. If you have to use a financial advisor, make sure they are with a large firm so you have someone you can go after if fraud should happen.
But it’s better to avoid financial advisors altogether if you can do things yourself. This is easy to do if you keep things simple. I know not all financial advisors are crooked, but it’s just an unfortunate circumstance that some are. Nobody cares more about your own money than you do.
Soothsayers…
Jun 7th
I do get tempted from time to time to listen to an investing show even though I follow the Permanent Portfolio. Some shows feature investment advisors who have some neat strategies or ideas I hadn’t considered before. Further, I believe that some investment advisors can be useful for things such as informing you of more tax friendly ways to invest, estate planning, etc. Unfortunately, it seems many investment advisors are in the market predicting business and this type of advice should be ignored.
I was reminded of this today when a well-known market prognosticator was being interviewed and he rattled off all sorts of predictions about stocks, bonds, precious metals, currency exchange rates, etc.
I thought to myself: “How does this guy know these things before they’ve even happened?” Of course he can’t possibly know. He was just good at sounding confident that he knows.
After hearing this, I came inside and dug up a quote about market prognosticators from Harry Browne that I thought you’d enjoy. I found this quote in a great e-Book collection of his newsletter writings called: Investment Strategy in an Uncertain World:
…a prediction implies a certainty, a precision, that doesn’t exist in the real world. It encourages you to place a bet that can pay off only if the prediction turns out to be correct. Such betting is no wiser in the investment world than it would be elsewhere. The strange thing is that most people aren’t concerned with predictions in other areas of life. One sets goals, rather than predictions, for his income, personal relationships, and living conditions — and tries to satisfy his goals. But only a foolish individual places bets on the future — such as making a purchase based on a prediction of a higher income that will pay for it.
And yet, when one enters the investment markets, the first thing he does is to look for a fortune-teller, someone who can predict next year’s gold price. In other areas, the fortune-teller is an object of amusement. But nine out of ten economists and investment advisors attempt to make their reputations as soothsayers — and nine out of ten investors spend their lives trying to find the soothsayer who’s genuine.
Harry Browne’s Special Report – March 2, 1982
As quoted in: Investment Strategy in an Uncertain World
When people ask me what asset X, Y or Z are going to do my answer is always the same: “I don’t know.” This isn’t a very exciting answer, but it’s an honest answer.
My advice is to ignore fortune tellers in the investing world the same way you ignore them in other areas of your life. Instead, build a balanced and diversified portfolio and get out of the market predicting game. Your investment portfolio will be far better off and you’ll be a lot less stressed about your finances.
Hello Random Roger Readers…
Jun 6th
Hello readers from Random Roger’s Investing Blog. For an overview of the ideas presented at this site please see:
16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety
The Permanent Portfolio Allocation
All topics relating to the Permanent Portfolio
I also recommend you download a couple of Harry Browne’s old investment radio shows for an introduction into his investment ideas. You may like them so much that you’ll come back to download the rest and listen to them (which I highly recommend):
August 8, 2004 – Debut Show and the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety
August 15, 2004 – Construction of the Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne Investment Show Archives
Finally, you may want to spend $10 and download his e-book which was a culmination of his nearly 40 years in the investing world. The book is quite short and can be read in an evening. It lays out all the concepts and ideas behind the portfolio:
