The Permanent Portfolio, Investing, Finance and Random Thoughts.
Investing
Investing
Harry Browne on Economic Consequences of Inflation 1970
7 months ago
by Craig Rowland
in Investing
Harry Browne discusses the consequences of inflation back in 1970. Note this was before Nixon’s attempt to do price and wage controls which were, of course, a disaster as Browne predicted. H/T to the Harry Browne fan page on Facebook.
More on Hindenburg Omens and Technical Analysis
7 months ago
by Craig Rowland
in Investing
I have some more thoughts about yesterday’s post on the Hindenburg Omen Re-Visited. Let’s look at the chart again:
Hindenburg Omen Still Not Getting Off the Ground
Here’s the interesting part. Suppose you actually did listen to the Omen and sold in August 2010? Then you watch the market go up. First +10%. Then +15%. Then +25%. Finally you see it’s up almost +30% since the Omen told you to sell! Drat! Better buy now…just in time for the markets to drop down from their highs.
That is the problem with market timing: It requires two decisions. The first is when to get out. The other however is when to get back in. You may only be 50% right and that can still cause large losses. It’s not a 50% problem. You need to be right 100% on both decisions or you still lose.
Hindenburg Omen Re-visited
7 months ago
by Craig Rowland
in Investing
Remember the Hidenberg Omen from August 2010? A sure sign of doom and destruction that I talked about before:
Hidenburg Omen Goes Up In Flames
How’d it do since then? Not well. Vanguard Total Stock Market is still up +20% since then. That even includes the rather anemic year so far in 2011:
Hindenburg Omen Still Not Getting Off the Ground
Technical analysis doesn’t work. Instead, keep a balanced and diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, cash and gold at all times and rebalance when needed.
