Comments for Crawling Road

Comment on The Permanent Portfolio and the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety by Permanent Portfolio - Back to Basics | Crawling Road

Permanent Portfolio - Back to Basics | Crawling Road — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 18:46:28 +0000

[...] 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety [...]

Comment on California Bonds Banner Ads by craigr

craigr — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:59:10 +0000

They put in the March 10th date as if you don’t rush out now you won’t get a second chance to buy their bloated debt. Like California bonds are some rare item on the market.

If I remember, I’ll try to see if I can’t get the ad to show up tomorrow. I wonder if it will say “Offer ends March 11th!” on it.

Comment on California Bonds Banner Ads by Wonk

Wonk — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:48:26 +0000

As a marketing/advertising guy, I have to say that is quite possibly the worst ad of all time.

No benefit to the reader, no sense of urgency, no special deal. I guess California is paying the ad agency in IOUs they plan on defaulting on anyway…

Comment on Permanent Portfolio Historical Returns by Dominique

Dominique — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 14:49:04 +0000

Very interesting reading on Iceland.

I’m not being clear so let me restate my question: Knowing what we do about the state of the economy, are there any changes you would make to the investments within the PP, not the asset allocation.

For example, is holding 25% of equities in TSM (only 2.5% in foreign stock) enough diversification?

BTW, currently the PP holds only 15% in cash.

Comment on Permanent Portfolio Historical Returns by craigr

craigr — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 04:32:10 +0000

Dominique, you should read the article on Marc’s blog about the portfolio in Iceland to see a true disaster scenario. No it did not protect an investor fully there. However they would have come out way ahead of a typical portfolio in that condition.

It’s interesting to consider these extreme situations. But we also must remember that the future is not predictable and the past does not repeat. Even if we are right about a particular doomsday event, the market may not respond the way we think and we could still lose money. Prior to 2008 some analysts predicted the real estate crash. But if you followed the advice to avoid it you may very well have taken worse losses than doing nothing. So my advice is to just stick to the plan because you are far safer diversifying your money across assets even if one or more crash than concentrating your wealth. If you concentrate your wealth and are wrong you could take horrendous losses.

Comment on A Fall 2009 Update – You did rebalance, right? by craigr

craigr — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 04:09:59 +0000

I know nothing about annuities. 6% guaranteed returns may be fine now when inflation is low along with interest rates but if we see double digit inflation again like the 1970s then you coud be in big trouble as your purchasing power will not keep up. Just something to consider as you look into them to see what protections they have against this scenario. Sorry I can’t help more.

Comment on The Permanent Portfolio Allocation by craigr

craigr — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 04:05:00 +0000

There is a bond FAQ I have posted that talks about this. Most all brokers can buy bonds for you. You can also buy from treasury direct. Lastly there is one etf and a couple funds that can be used as outlined the FAQ.