Posts tagged Gold

Overseas Gold ETFs for Geographic Diversification

There are several ETFs now that claim to hold gold overseas in places like Switzerland (or even closer in Canada). They are marketed as a way to get geographic diversification for gold holdings. There is even a spin that you can show up and pickup your gold. These are all marketing claims. Let’s talk about them.

Street Name

When you buy a stock/ETF it is held in the street name (another definition) of the broker, not your name. The idea that you’re going to show up in Zürich or Alberta and pick up your gold from an ETF before hitting the slopes is pure marketing. The chances that the fund operator is going to know it’s you that owns the shares is almost zero. The shares are almost all owned by brokerages in their name. The brokerage then keeps track in their own records who holds what. You’d have to work with your broker to get actual stock certificates issued in your name which is going to be a pain. Then there is the issue about showing up and proving your identity, etc.

The idea that you’re going to show up in Zürich or Alberta and pick up your gold from an ETF before hitting the slopes is pure marketing.

Where the Money is Really Kept

Also many people are not aware that funds that hold money in US dollars likely have those assets in US banks/brokerages even if based in another country. So the liquid cash assets are not outside of the US. The gold may be, but that’s it! There are plenty of ways the US govt. could put pressure on these ETFs to comply with repatriation orders, etc. You are not going to be protected from this kind of threat if that is what you think (not that it is likely anyway).

What Gold ETF is Best?

The ETF from the Canton Bank of Zürich (Zürcher Kantonalbak) under the ticker ZGLD is probably the “best” of the bunch. This is an ETF from a very well established Swiss bank with solid backing by the Canton of Zürich. It is operated under strict Swiss banking laws.

Now for the bad news…

This ETF is not available for purchase by Americans. You could jump through some hoops to get it on a foreign exchange, but this is a bad idea because of potential tax and other issues not being registered here. So even if you can buy it, you should be aware that it is strongly discouraged.

Now, if you are a non-US person in a foreign country then by all means buy ZGLD. It is probably the best of the Gold ETFs out there.

ETFs Have Similar Risks

Many of these ETFs have similar risks. They almost always use the same vaults, etc. to hold their gold in places like Switzerland, just the name is different. The Canadian ETFs (GTU and CEF) are exceptions as they hold it in Canada. But again you get that street name issue again so good luck proving you own it if your brokerage has a problem.

Gold ETFs are convenient and good for a portion of your gold holdings if you want easier rebalancing. But if you want to hold gold overseas you’re going to need to do something more robust to get the higher safety. This is just the reality of the situation. These overseas storage ETFs may be marginally better than the big guys of StateStreet GLD or iShares IAU, but ETFs are all going to have similar risks no matter what the marketing department has to say on the matter.

Where Can I Find Out More?

Glad you asked! Did I mention that overseas gold storage options for all persons (including Americans) will be covered in the upcoming book? Accounts from a minimum of a single gold coin in allocated storage up to millions in value will have options. What a coincidence! Sign up for the book here and we’ll discuss the options available that will be a more robust way to handle overseas gold allocations than using an ETF:

Permanent Portfolio Book Announcement List

 

 

Governments Like Inflation

Let’s talk about Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) again. It’s no secret that I dislike them vs. gold in the Permanent Portfolio. But will they ever “default” as some say? No, they won’t. But this doesn’t mean they don’t have other serious problems.

I don’t believe the US will ever default on its debt because they control the money it is denominated in. They can simply print money to pay it all off. Not a good thing, but technically not a default. If you own $10,000 in TIPS and the Treasury hands you a $10,000 bill in the future they technically paid off the obligation. Of course the money may be worthless, but you did get paid back as stated in the agreement.

Now, what causes inflation? Inflation across an entire economy is caused by politics, not economics. It’s different than a shortage of a crop like corn that cause prices to spike in that one area. Inflation as a policy makes all prices go up together. This is a unilateral truth if you look at financial history.

Therefore, the idea of relying on the government causing the inflation to protect you from the inflation is a really bad idea. If the government really cared about protecting you from inflation they would implement monetary policies that balanced the demand for new money each year with the supply so inflation was 0% +-. But that’s not what they do. They target 3-4% inflation and often get it wrong and all sorts of things happen as a result.

Governments like inflation. They have no desire to protect their citizens from inflation or they wouldn’t use it as a monetary policy at all.

What does this mean? Simple:

Governments like inflation. They have no desire to protect their citizens from inflation or they wouldn’t use it as a monetary policy at all. 

Why buy a product like TIPS from an entity that is actively working against your interests behind the scenes?

Even the much vaunted “independence” of the Fed is an illusion. Enormous pressure can be put on the Chair of the Fed to react in certain ways. I really enjoyed this paper for instance that discussed the Nixon tapes and the pressure put on Fed Chair Arthur Burns. Nixon wanted an easy money supply for political reasons at the risk of sending inflation even higher and it appears Burns complied. The taped quotes are interesting:

How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes

What’s the lesson from this (and likely other manipulations by later administrations)? Well it’s that true inflation protection is not going to be gained by trusting the people with their hands on the printing press.

TIPS may be wonderful if inflation is low and steady. But I have a very difficult time believing they are going to do any better than a simple short-term Treasury fund in terms of offering inflation protection under higher rates. In other words, they are very likely to just tread water or probably lose a little each year in the game of catch up if bad inflation comes to the US.

Don’t buy TIPS for the Permanent Portfolio. Gold is immune from a lot of political shenanigans that can affect the actual reporting of inflation and subsequent inflation adjusted payments. There’s nothing wrong with keeping 25% of your wealth in a form of money (gold bullion) that is not subject to the whims of those in power.

Harry Browne in 1970 Discussing the Coming Devaluation of the Dollar

Harry Browne in September 1970 on the TV show “Firing Line” with William Buckley, Jr. He is discussing how the US government is going to break the gold standard and the kinds of repercussions it may have. The gentleman in the middle, Eliot Janeway, was proven completely wrong when Nixon did in fact end the gold standard on August 15, 1971 and touched off a decade of very bad inflation.

Hat tip to MediumTex on the forum for this video.

 

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