Posts tagged gurus

Long Term Bonds Continue to Confound the Gurus

7 months ago
by Craig Rowland in ,

Well I don’t normally comment on current market news, but it looks like the Fed may keep up the pressure on long term bond rates. This, despite the predictions of many gurus that long term bonds have nowhere to go but up and should be avoided.

Well rates continue to fall. As of right now they are yielding about 3.0% for the 30 year bond! The iShares Treasury Long Term Bond ETF [NYSE:TLT] (Which I use a benchmark tracker for the Permanent Portfolio) is up over 25% this year according to Morningstar.

Once again I say that I have made far more money in my life ignoring market gurus than I ever have by listening to them. 

We must hold all the assets in the Permanent Portfolio all the time no matter what we think will happen! The future is not predictable.

Hope you are weathering the market volatility well. Rebalance your portfolio if it needs it!

Hindenburg Omen Goes Up In Flames

1 year ago
by Craig Rowland in

Flashback to August 2010 in the Wall Street Journal:

Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

The Hindenburg Omen reared its ugly head late last week, signaling more doom and gloom as stocks plod along amid the dog days of summer.

The Omen, a technical indicator which uses a plethora of data to foreshadow a stock-market crash, was tripped again on Friday, marking the second time since Aug. 12 it has occurred. (It also came close on Thursday, but one of its criteria fell short.)

The latest trigger has prompted the Omen’s creator, Jim Miekka, to exit the market. “I’m taking it seriously and I’m fully out of the market now,” Miekka, a blind mathematician, said in a telephone interview from his home in Surry, Maine. “I would’ve probably stayed in until the beginning of September,” depending on how the indicators varied. “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.

…

“With what we have now, I think it’s possible we could get a 20% decline going into the fall,” Miekka said. “But I would expect some type of selloff and be buying at a lower price.” (emphasis added)

Since August 2010 when the Hindenburg Omen was spotted in the market, what has happened?

The Vanguard Total Stock Market index is up almost 30%:

Lessons?

1) Technical analysis is bunk.

2) Don’t time the markets.

3) Hold all your Permanent Portfolio assets all the time no matter what you read in the news.

Penny Stock Fraudster

1 year ago
by Craig Rowland in

I saw this ad recently for a get rich quick penny stock scheme:

Penny Stock Fraud

An ad for penny stock trading

Let’s look at the ad copy a bit and provide some interpretation:

“23-year-old college student John Bell isn’t like most of his classmates…In 2009 he turned a $10,000 student loan into $1,000,000 by betting on risky penny stocks.”

Yes he is different than most of his classmates. His classmates probably didn’t take out a loan for college and then invest it in a risky penny stock scheme. This is flat out fraud. He wouldn’t have gotten a student loan if he disclosed on his application that he was going to use the money to gamble in the stock market.

In other words, John Bell is a liar. I don’t think this story is remotely true. Even if it were, would you trust a liar to teach you his deep dark profit making secrets?

“John has now decided to teach his ‘penny stock secrets’ for free at his new website. John claims he can teach anyone how to make $10,000 a month. He even taught his mother…”

Don’t bother going to his website, I have the four step plan already:

1) Take out a loan under fraudulent pretenses.

2) Invest it in junky companies selling for prices less than $1.00 with other suckers.

3) Lose all the money and spend the next several years dodging loan collectors.

4) Create a “free” website to pump and dump your worthless penny stocks so you turn a profit after all. (H/T to commenter Pres below!)

Great plan, John! Thanks for sharing.

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