Investing, economics, finance and random thoughts.
Posts tagged Reviews
Gear Review – Fenix LD01 Flashlight (also Swiss Army Hercules and Swedish Firesteel)
Feb 1st
Like most nerds, I like having some type of pocket tool kit on my person at all times. Whether a Swiss Army Knife or Leatherman, it comes in handy so often that I just can’t imagine traveling anywhere without one. But suppose you have to disassemble your car or defuse a bomb MacGuyver style in total darkness? You need some light and you need the light detached from your tool kit so you can see what you’re doing while using the tool itself.
Squeeze Lights Run Out of Juice
For many years I carried a Photon squeeze light
The Fenix Has Landed
While only weighing slightly more than the smaller squeeze lights, the Fenix offered far greater output and operating time with multiple brightness modes. Further, it was also easier to hold and the aluminum housing is very tough. While I’ve never had a problem with wet weather with the squeeze lights, the Fenix LD01 feels much more solid and weather resistant with a smooth rotating switch action and sealed compartment for the AAA battery. I’ve used it in many weather conditions to include pouring rain without any problems.The LD01 features a powerful 80 Lumens output on the highest setting. The light output is easily as strong as a much larger conventional lightbulb flashlight. I’ve lit up objects 100+ feet away without any problem. On the lowest setting the light is comparable to the squeeze lights but the beam is better focused and more usable thanks to the built in reflector. There is also a medium setting which is a nice compromise in brightness vs. battery life. The light settings are quickly adjusted by turning the front bezel. When turned on initially it will default to medium power, the second twist gives you low power and the last twist gives you high power. Twisting a final time turns the light off. There are no buttons on the light and the entire system is controlled by twisting the head. This is also how you replace the battery. It’s a rugged and simple design and stays off when in your pocket and stays on when you want it to be on. The kit also includes a pocket clip, attachment ring and spare O-ring in case the included one wears out.
In terms of battery life, on the highest setting the manufacturer claims a one hour burn time with a single AAA battery, 3.5 hours on the medium setting and 11 hours on the lowest setting. I’ve not run a battery out yet despite having used mine for many hours already. Because the light uses a standard AAA battery, you can find replacements in stores that may not stock button batteries or specialty photo cells that other lights may use.
The light itself is about 3″ long and 1/2″ in diameter. Here it is in comparison with a standard sqeeze light, the little brother Fenix E01
The LD01 packs a lot of light in a small package.
I had some photos of just how strong this light is, but honestly the images just can’t capture it well and it is so bright that it was causing the camera to underexpose. 
Let’s just say that a full size 3 D-Cell traditional bulb flashlight is about 80 lumens and weights over 30 oz. This light that fits in your pocket and weighs perhaps two ounces is just as bright. Of course there are some lights that are brighter, but for the size this one is really hard to beat. I own several Fenix lights now and have never had one fail me after some pretty rough use (as opposed to some others which failed soon after I bought them).
The little brother Fenix E01
Knife in the Photo
For those that are curious, the knife in the photo is the larger Swiss Army Atlas model with a locking blade, pliers and saw. I don’t think they make it any more and the Swiss Army Hercules
model (the Swiss are on some strongman theme here) seems to be a close replacement (it has added scissors which are always handy). These models of knives are longer than the standard sized Swiss Army knives, but I do a lot of hiking and having a longer usable saw and knife blade is a great feature for cutting branches and other field tasks. The saw on this knife beats the snot out of those cheesy cable saws that always break after about five minutes worth of use. It also works better than many other pocket knife saws I’ve used and can cut branches up to 4″ or so and even 2x4s with little effort (and no, I don’t endorse going around hacking branches off of trees when out in the woods). The locking blade gives the knife extra safety against ham handed accidents that could close it on your own fingers. For what it’s worth, I’ve owned many original Victorinox Swiss Army brand knives through the years and have never had any of them break on me after some hard use (something I can’t say about most of the clones).
A Great Firestarter
The orange thing on the knife is a Swedish Firesteel Mini
A Great Piece of Kit
But back to the flashlight. Fenix is a relatively new manufacturer, but they are making some really good products and the LD01 is a great piece of kit. It puts out an amazing amount of light in a small package that fits in your pocket. I think it’s a great value for the quality and function and can easily replace much bigger units for a fraction of the weight.
Book Review – Books on Risk (and two podcasts)
Jan 28th
A theme you’ll hear on this blog about investing is the idea that the markets are not predictable. You may believe that I’m referring to the idea that you can’t predict returns on investments ahead of time and that’s partially true. The other part though relates to extreme risks that sweep through the markets in unpredictable ways with unpredictable results.
Aside from standard market risks, when you look at your investments it’s also important to always ask yourself: “What if I’m wrong?” Because, odds are, you will be wrong eventually. It’s just a question of degrees on how wrong it will be: A little or a lot.
The Permanent Portfolio has protection against unpredictable market risks and being wrong. If you’re wrong, you’re not going to be wrong so much that you take a crushing blow to your portfolio (because your asset allocation is widely diversified in relatively small chunks). We should also understand though that all investments have risk. Without risk, you will not get rewards. So risk must be taken to grow a portfolio, but it must be done with specific goals in mind. We need profits, but we also need defenses against an unknown future.
In this light, I’d like to share with you some books and podcasts that I think really hit at this problem of risk, uncertain futures and protecting yourself against being wrong. They may help you understand why diversifying and eliminating unnecessary risks in your portfolio is so important and why being wrong does not have to be fatal if you handle it correctly.
First there is John Allen Paulos and his book A Mathematician Plays The Stock Market. This 2003 title is one of a series of excellent books written about his worldly observations as a mathematician. In this case, the book details his own personal story of losing money in the stock market and how uncertainty rules. It’s an interesting look at many concepts you see in the investing world with respect to stocks vs. bonds, efficient market hypothesis, chaos theory, etc. And, best of all, it’s a very easy and fun read with almost no math but high level explanations of many concepts with real-world examples. He has a number of books written in his “A Mathematician” series exploring everything from innumeracy in society to his experiences investing (and losing) lots of money in Worldcom as he discusses in this book. The bottom line is that risk is real, markets are random, and trying to beat it can be very costly. His dedication reads:
To my father, who never played the market and knew little about probability, yet understood one of the prime lessons of both. “Uncertainty,” he would say, “is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”
John Allen Paulos – A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market Dedication
Now that’s a dedication I can get behind! That is the core philosophy of how the Permanent Portfolio is designed to operate.
Next, there is Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his series of books on chance. First there was Fooled By Randomness followed by The Black Swan. Both of these books explore the idea of unpredictability in the world. While his advice is largely being linked to finance today (he was a former trader), his observations come into play in many areas of life. His book, The Black Swan, pre-dated the 2008 crash involving Fannie Mae but said this in one of his footnotes:…the government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at their risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their large staff of scientists deemed these events “unlikely.”
Nassim Taleb – The Black Swan Pg. 225
I’d say he certainly called that one correctly.
I also think you’ll enjoy these two podcasts from Nassim Taleb. One recorded in 2007 talks about his book The Black Swan. The second was recorded in 2009 after the market meltdown as an after-action report on what he had written and said before:
Taleb on Black Swans – April 30, 2007
Taleb on the Financial Crisis – March 23, 2009
One thing about Taleb is while he has disdain for most fields of economics (and especially the very silly Keynesians), he does have an affinity for the Austrian Economic School and their dislike of the over-application of mathematics in economics for what is, essentially, a human behavioral problem (aka. scientism). Why does this matter? For one, you cannot model risks accurately with standard statistical methods because human behavior is not predictable. Secondly, Harry Browne was a firm believer in Austrian Economics and the Permanent Portfolio design, at its absolute core, is based on the Austrian School’s theory on monetary cycles (a lengthy topic for another day) and embracing unpredictability in the world. In fact, I think that one of the reasons the Permanent Portfolio is good at dealing with market risk is because the Austrian Economics school is right about a great many things. This outlook helps to drive the portfolio down the right path over time avoiding serious pitfalls and dangerous assumptions about the future.
With these three books and two podcasts you will understand more about market risk than most professional investors and economists. Seriously. Combine that with Harry Browne’s podcasts, and his own previous books, and you’ll be well versed in the dangers of the unpredictable in the investing world and how to position yourself to deal with them.