Posts tagged risk control

Diversify Where You Put Your Money

MF Global lays out the perfect case for Rule #10 in the 16 Golden Rules of Financial Safety:

Are customer accounts at brokerage firms safe?

Until the collapse of MF Global, that’s a question I thought I’d never have to ask.

Brokerage firms are required by law to maintain segregated accounts holding all client assets, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, money market funds and cash. The law was passed after the 1929 crash, in the depths of the Depression, to make sure that customer assets were there at all times, ready to be disbursed even if everyone asked for their money at once.

This obligation to protect customer assets “is considered sacrosanct,” Robert Cook, director of the division of trading and markets at the Securities and Exchange Commission, told me this week. “It’s considered a sacred obligation.”

Lehman Brothers may have engaged in many foolhardy practices, but even in the firm’s last days, when officials were desperate for cash, no one dared touch customer assets, which remained safely segregated despite the firm’s collapse.

And then came the revelation that an estimated $1.2 billion in customer assets had vanished at MF Global, the large brokerage and futures trading firm headed by Jon S. Corzine, the former Goldman Sachs executive and Democratic politician, that collapsed in late October after a catastrophic bet on European sovereign debt.

How could such a thing happen? I had always assumed it was impossible and that strict internal controls existed at all brokerage firms so that firm officials couldn’t tap segregated customer funds even if they were willing to break the law. Thanks to MF Global, it’s now apparent that isn’t necessarily true. “If people are determined to misuse customer funds, they will misuse them,” said Ananda Radhakrishnan, the director of the division of clearing and risk at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. – A Risk Once Unthinkable by James B. Stewart – New York Times December 9, 2011

(Emphasis added)

Rule #10 States:

Rule #10: Don’t depend on any one investment, institution, or person for your safety.

Every investment has its time in the sun — and its moment of shame. Precious metals ruled the roost in the 1970s while stocks and bonds were in disgrace. But then gold and silver became the losers of the 1980s and 1990s, while stocks and bonds multiplied their value. No one investment is good for all times. Even Treasury bills can lose real value during times of inflation.

And you can’t rely on any single institution to protect your wealth for you. Old-line banks have failed and pension funds have folded. The company you think will keep your wealth safe might not be there when you’re ready to withdraw your life savings. 

We live in an uncertain world, and surprises are the norm. You shouldn’t risk the chance that a single surprise will wipe out a large part of your holdings.

(Emphasis added)

I always recommend keeping your savings at more than one institution and not using the same fund company for all your investment money (for instance not using all Vanguard funds or all iShares or all Fidelity, etc.). It’s best to split up the assets in case something very bad were to happen with your brokerage or the company running the funds.

I know it’s more convenient to keep everything at one broker or fund provider because of unified statements, etc, but it’s really not a good idea for diversification. You’ll even notice on this blog when I recommend using ETFs, I tend to not provide tickers from all the same company (like iShares). Rather I think it a better idea to use some Vanguard, iShares, SPDRs and of course physical gold storage somewhere secure. MF Global is the poster-child why this kind of thinking is a good idea.

H/T to Ad Orientem for his link on the forum reminding me to make a comment about this latest financial industry debacle.

iShares ETFs – Synthetic or Direct Holdings?

Relating to this post about funds holding things they otherwise shouldn’t:

Vanguard Treasury Bond Funds Filled with Mortgage Garbage

A reader wrote to iShares to ask about their ETFs and find out which had direct holdings and which were synthetically run with derivatives. The directly held funds have less moving parts involved around counter-party risk and are theoretically safer than synthetic versions. Here was iShare’s response which I was given permission to repost (H/T to R):

Thank you for your interest in iShares.

Further to your email, we have stipulated which of the funds you are holding are physical/synthetic below:

TLT – Physical
ACWI – Physical
IWRD – Physical
EEM – Physical
IDVY – Physical
IUKD – Physical
JSC – Non iShares ETF – Statestreet -
EWJ – Physical
XMWO – Non iShares ETF – DBX Trackers – Synthetic ETF
SHY – Physical
SHV – Physical

As of 19th September 2011, iShares managed 113 ETFs domiciled in Ireland of which only two were synthetic. Please note some of the products listed above are not Irish domiciled iShares ETFs. Should you require any further assistance please do not hesitate to contact us.

Best regards,

iShares Feedback

Looking at the above, the Treasury Long Term (TLT), and Short Term Treasury Funds (SHY and SHV) are directly held by the bond funds. I still recommend you hold bonds directly if you are able. However, if you are not able, the iShares funds still appear to be one of the better choices out on the market especially compared to Vanguard’s Treasury bond funds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vanguard “Treasury” Bond Funds Filled with Mortgage Garbage

EyeDee over at the Bogleheads forum posts the following:

Those who own Vanguard Treasury funds to avoid mortgage-backed securities should probably be aware that as of 08/31/2011, Government Mortgage-Backed securities in Vanguard’s Treasury funds are up to:

17.7% in Short-Term Treasury Fund
17.4% in Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund
16.9% in Long-Term Treasury Fund

These links go over the current composition of these funds:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0032&FundIntExt=INT#hist=tab%3A2
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0035&FundIntExt=INT#hist=tab%3A2
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0083&FundIntExt=INT#hist=tab%3A2

I went over why I don’t like Vanguard’s Treasury Bond Funds in a previous post on holding cash. Sometimes you just can’t help but use them depending on your situation, but given the choice I recommend avoiding Vanguard’s Treasury Funds.

Now, allow me to vent for a bit.

Vanguard bond managers are adding absolutely no benefit to investors by shifting around 20% of the assets in these funds to what they think adds more value. And if you look at the Total Bond Fund fiasco in 2002, even Vanguard managers can and do make mistakes. They are chasing yield, and chasing yield can cause problems.

I had posted before that running a Treasury bond fund should be the simplest job in the world for Vanguard and they are trying to make it difficult. If I ran the fund I would require a computer and a PlayStation 3.

The computer is to balance the deposits and redemptions each morning and close of business with buys/sells of Treasury bonds.

The PS3 is for the other seven hours a day where I would have absolutely nothing to do.

I don’t understand why they feel like they need to run their Treasury funds with a speculative bent. I recommend you just buy bonds directly and sit them in your brokerage account or at Treasury Direct. This costs you nothing each year in management fees and they just sit there quietly and pay you interest twice a year.

If you can’t do the above, then use the iShares products (Tickers: TLT, SHY, SHV) that are essentially 100% Treasuries and have a prospectus that limits better what they can do behind the scenes.

Vanguard putting mortgage bonds in a Treasury bond fund is completely inappropriate. Mortgages behave much differently than nominal bonds in changing interest rate environments. Why? Well, people refinance mortgages when interest rates are falling for instance but tend to hold onto low interest loans when rates rise. So it’s heads they win tails you lose. Mortgages have no business being in a Treasury bond fund and I recommend avoiding Vanguard Treasury Bond funds if you are able.

Article: Lessons for investors from Japan’s lost decades

Hat Tip to Odysseusa for this article from Globe and Mail:

Lessons for investors from Japan’s lost decades

The lesson? Broad diversification works.

A Japanese investor who held government bonds, foreign stocks, precious metals and cash, in addition to domestic shares, would have blunted the Nikkei’s fall and even earned a profit. That may not be the most exciting take-away from Japan’s experience, but it’s one time-tested result that investors should keep in mind as they seek a refuge from today’s market weakness.
 

(emphasis added)

Couldn’t agree more. Portfolios should hold stocks, bonds, cash and gold at all times no matter what we may think will happen in the markets.

Taking the Turns

In relation to yesterday’s post on portfolio firewalls, it reminded me of something…

I knew a guy that was a seasoned network architect. We were talking one day about network design and highest performance. Being young and dumb, I thought that highest performance was all that needed to be considered. He looked at me though and said:

“Speed is fine, just be sure you can take the turns.”

The point being that you can optimize for highest performance, but the reality of the world is you need to have proper fault tolerance, redundancy, etc. built into a design in case things don’t go according to plan. Speed is only one consideration.

Yet, the problem with many portfolio strategies is that they just can’t take the turns.

How do you get a portfolio that can take the turns? Here are my thoughts:

  1. Don’t fixate on backtested high performance numbers. They tell only one part of the story. 
  2. Consider the worst case scenarios and imagine how your portfolio will react to them if they should happen. 
  3. Complex portfolios (and complex trading strategies) are usually the result of people looking to get more speed. They have a lot of moving parts that can send you over a cliff in bad markets. Keep your portfolio as simple as possible to get the job done.
  4. Own assets from the four major asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash and gold) and don’t worry about slicing assets into tiny specialty sector pieces.  
  5. Finally, investor emotions are a major factor in long term portfolio performance. Don’t underestimate the importance of a stable portfolio that can absorb bad market shocks or even prolonged bad markets. Even if that means giving up some theoretical (and that’s all it is) performance. 

Investors often look so much at ultimate high speed performance and never consider what happens when things don’t go according to plan. Then they slam into the jersey wall when a hair pin turn shows up. Speed is fine, just make sure your life savings can take the turns.

 

 

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